Explainer: What Will Happen To Canada After Trudeau Announces His Resignation As PM?

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced on Monday he would step down in the coming months, triggering a period of political uncertainty.

While Trudeau will remain prime minister until a new leader is chosen by his Liberal Party, his resignation sets the stage for a leadership race and raises questions about Canada's ability to handle pressing challenges, both domestic and international.

HOW MUCH LONGER CAN TRUDEAU STAY?

Under the Liberal Party's constitution, a national board meeting of directors must be held within 27 days of a leader announcing intention to resign. The board can appoint an interim leader to manage the party's affairs while a leadership race is organized.

This race typically lasts several months, but due to the urgency, the Liberals are expected to select a new leader before Parliament reconvenes in late March. Once a new leader is elected, they will automatically replace Trudeau as prime minister until the next general election.

WHO WILL LEAD?

Trudeau's resignation has triggered a national leadership contest. The race will likely last several months and culminate in a leadership convention by the end of March 2025.

Prominent figures, including former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney, former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, former B.C. Premier Christy Clark, and Trudeau confidant and current Finance Minister Dominic Leblanc are expected to join the race.

This contest will be crucial not only for the Liberal Party's future but also for shaping Canada's relationship with the United States under a potentially hostile Trump administration.

HOW WILL IT IMPACT CANADA'S POLITICS?

Trudeau's resignation comes at a precarious time. The opposition Conservatives were preparing to table a non-confidence motion when the House of Commons reconvenes on Jan. 27.

To avoid a confidence vote while the Liberals organize their leadership contest, Trudeau requested a prorogation of Parliament until March 24, 2025. This will halt all legislative activities, including key economic proposals, and give the Liberal Party time to select a new leader.

A new session of Parliament will begin with a Speech from the Throne, setting up a confidence vote that could trigger a federal election in May if the Liberals fail to hold power.

CAN TRUDEAU EFFECTIVELY GOVERN DURING TRANSITION?

While the leadership race unfolds, Trudeau remains in office as a caretaker prime minister. However, his ability to negotiate with the United States or respond to global challenges could be limited.

Experts, including Laura Dawson of the Future Borders Coalition, worry that Canada's lack of clear leadership could weaken its position in the face of Trump's tariff threats. Ontario Premier Doug Ford echoed these concerns, arguing that Trudeau should focus on the tariff issue rather than stepping down at such a critical time.

IS CANADA VULNERABLE AMID UNCERTAINTY?

Trudeau's resignation comes just as the United States is about to enter a new chapter with President-elect Donald Trump threatening 25 percent tariffs on Canadian imports.

Critics, including former Canadian ambassador to the United States David MacNaughton, warn that Trudeau's resignation weakens Canada's bargaining position. Trudeau's influence will rapidly fade, making it harder for Canada to respond to these new threats. With Trump preparing to take office, the timing raises concerns about Canada's diplomatic capacity during this leadership vacuum.

Trump's own provocative response on his Truth Social platform, suggesting Canada merge with the United States to avoid tariffs, only adds to the political turbulence and highlights the need for strong leadership.

IS CANADA AT A CROSSROADS?

The coming months will be pivotal as Canada faces a leadership transition amidst rising global tensions. Trudeau's resignation has left the country at a crossroads, with its political future uncertain and ability to manage international relations under threat. The selection of a new Liberal leader will determine not only the party's direction but also Canada's standing on the world stage.

For now, Trudeau remains at the helm, promising to protect Canadian interests during this period of uncertainty. But with political waters growing ever more turbulent, Canada's leadership in the coming months will be crucial to navigating the challenges ahead.
-XINHUA