Flash out of the Audio Tape

The flash out of an audio tape in public involving the Parliamentarian of the Rastriya Swatantra Party(RSP) Mr. Dhaka Kumar Shrestha under proportional representation and a Government favor seeking medical tycoon Durga Prasad Parsai indicating his support of 20 million Rupees for appointment of Mr. Shrestha as a Minister of Home Ministry has struck RSP with a political quake of high magnitude. Consequently, the party has received a serious political jolt prompting it to fire Mr Shrestha from all the responsibilities including ordinary membership.

It is unfortunate that this incident surfaced at a time when RSP is contesting for the by election due to be held in the second week of the New Year. It has certainly damped its probability of victory or victory margin as the case may be in these constituencies. Because scandals have negative repercussion to the accused even if it benefits the opponent and also the media. People had voted for RSP due to its commitment to root out corruption from the country. Its complicity in corrupt affair has given them the impression that they were taken for a ride to fulfil the Party officials' selfish motives rather than peoples' welfare.

It has been known that this discourse took place in January and its revelation in the threshold of the bye election has certainly perplexed many people hinting the event to be highly orchestrated. But such incidents have taken place in the past. In Germany, in January 2013, an article was published in Germany’s influential news magazine Stern. It was featuring Mr. Rainer Brüderle, then chairman of the Liberal Party’s parliamentary faction. Mr. Rainer is alleged to have made inappropriate advances towards the female author of the article during an interview. According to the author, Laura Himmelreich, Brüderle asked about her age and later for a dance. While looking at her breasts, he allegedly stated that Himmelreich could fill a dirndl, the traditional Bavarian costume. The article led to a nationwide debate about sexism and the relation between the politicians and journalists.

But such scandals had not erupted in the national scene as in the present. This is one of the reasons for which this transgression has attracted peoples' attention.

Like the audio tape did not appear in January, this article was also not published in January 2012 when the interview took place. On the contrary, it was published after a year. It was in fact a few days after Brüderle was selected as front-runner of the Liberal Party for the upcoming national elections. Himmelreich addressed the delay on Twitter, explaining that the nomination had increased the newsworthiness of the incident. The Brüderle scandal was not the only factor in the election outcome, but the Liberal Party failed to meet the 5% vote threshold and lost their seats in parliament.

By elections have been held in Nepal right from 1959. In the following years, these have been conducted in 1992, 1994, 1997, 1999, 2009, 2014, 2015, 2019 and now in the year 2023. But such scandals had not erupted in the national scene as in the present. This is one of the reasons for which this transgression has attracted peoples' attention.

In the context of the RSP contesting from Chitwan and Tanahu, the question arises regarding what kind of impact positive or negative will this episode have on election outcome. The German case has shown that such scandals on the eve of election can have a negative consequence. RSP have however expected for a positive outcome in view of the speedy action taking against the erring Parliamentarian when the other parties either keep mum or protect their member in similar incidents. Examples are many but the most glaring are the alleged absence of any enquiry with respect to the recent cracks suffered by neighboring houses with the construction of Summit Apartment owned by the Nepali Congress(NC) MP and billionaire Vinod Chaudhary who is tipped to be the Finance Minister. The entry of outsider in the Finance Ministry during the preparation of the budget by Janardan Sharma that had raised tremendous hue and cry in the Parliament is yet another example of cover up by the political parties. Bhanu Bhakta Dhakal, the Health Minister was allowed to go scot free when he was alleged to amass huge fortune during the procurement of Covid vaccine.

It will also have impact in Tanahu constituency where Swarnim Wagley is contesting representing RSP after he made a political escapade from the NC.

The present scenario is that the President of RSP, Mr. Rabi Lamicchane is contesting from Chitwan after he lost his earlier membership of Parliament after taking Nepali citizenship without dislodging from the US citizenship when he had swept the poll result rising on the crest of popularity wave in RSP's favor. This however is not the case and his irresponsive take of the citizenship issue followed by the audio tape corrupt scandal has taken substantial gloss out of the party. At the first place, the bye election had to be conducted purely because of Rabi's oversight of the citizenship issue. Secondly, Rabi is also indirectly implicated in view of the statement of Mr. Shrestha that he has to pay 20 million Rupees for his appointment as a Health Minister. It has seriously slumped his popularity leading to win by slim margin or even defeat in view of the more popular and local NC president Jit Bahadur Shrestha up against him.

It will also have impact in Tanahu constituency where Swarnim Wagley is contesting representing RSP after he made a political escapade from the NC. He is facing Mr. Govinda Bhattarai, a NC candidate who is known for his long time devotion in the party who enjoys sympathy due to being sidelined from opportunity all these years despite his untiring dedication. Wagley was running on two legs- one consisting of his intellectual and oratory prowess and the other the popularity wave of RSP. The second leg has been considerably weak after this scandal came into public.

Even the lesser known candidate may benefit from such smear campaign because the voters remember otherwise a candidate with modest profile.

Such scandals are basically of two types. Either they are intended to prevent the candidate from contesting the election or they are aimed at the loss in election. Presumed Democratic Presidential Candidate Gary Hart had to drop his candidacy after news was broken out by Miami Herald about his womanizing persona in the 1987 Presidential election. Trump was alleged of sexual misbehavior by several women including Jill Harth who had sued him in 1997. She again discussed the allegation when Trump was running for Presidency in 2016 against Hillary Clinton.

It has been found that the more attractive candidates face more damage than lesser prominent candidates. It is thus likely to affect Mr. Rabi Lamichhane and Mr. Swarnim Wagley due to their comparatively more eminence among the voters. But such defamation attempts are double edged. Even the lesser known candidate may benefit from such smear campaign because the voters remember otherwise a candidate with modest profile.

The outcome on elections depends on the time of the scandals. It has been observed that those emerging at the threshold of the election create maximum effect. The publication delay of this audio tape and the German article both indicate that these were held back considerably for creating maximum impact. It remains to be seen what effect it will have in the forthcoming by elections.