What To Happen After Pause Of U.S.-Iran Conflict In 6th Month?

Will the U.S.-Iran conflict reignite into a full-scale war or turn into a high-stakes game of diplomatic chess after a current pause in its sixth month? This question has drawn global attention to every move by Washington and Tehran.

ATTACKS PAUSED

Since late June, the United States carried out consecutive rounds of strikes on Iran, which, according to the U.S. Central Command, were to "degrade Iran's ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz."

In retaliation, Iran launched drone strikes against U.S. bases and assets in the Gulf states, including Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait.

According to Iran's Health Ministry, at least 55 people have been killed and 629 others wounded in U.S. strikes against Iran since June 27.

On the U.S. side, four servicemen have been killed and 207 others injured since the U.S. military resumed attacks on Iran, according to military casualty statistics updated by the Department of Defense on Sunday.

Over the weekend, the war has shown signs of de-escalation. Both Washington and Tehran have indicated a pause in direct attacks.

U.S. media reported on Saturday that the U.S. military has paused strikes on Iran, though explanations for the halt remain divergent.

CBS News, citing two regional sources, said Washington had suspended attacks to avoid disrupting an Omani delegation's visit to Tehran for talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Separately, The New York Times reported that U.S. President Donald Trump had set aside plans for a sharp escalation after senior advisers warned of dwindling U.S. air-defense stocks.

Iran, meanwhile, said on Sunday that it had halted retaliatory attacks after the United States suspended its strikes on the country for the past two nights.

TALKS RESUMED

After the attacks were paused, diplomatic channels have been reopened, with Washington and Tehran exchanging messages through mediators.

On Friday, Trump said that Washington and Tehran are in talks and that he believes Iran is getting "more serious."

On Monday, Trump said he decided to halt strikes because the mediating countries and some states in the region had asked him to give talks with Iran another chance.

However, he warned that he could order a restart of strikes if talks with Iran fail. "I think there's a good chance that something could happen," he said. "And if it does, good, if it doesn't, we go back to doing what we were doing two days ago."

On the Iranian side, Iranian media, citing Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei, reported on Sunday that the United States is exchanging messages with Iran through mediators.

However, Baghaei said at a press briefing on Monday that Tehran will not allow the U.S. side "to determine the time of war and peace, and we will defend ourselves for as long as necessary."

According to Al-Jazeera, Qatar, Egypt and Pakistan have been working with other regional mediators on a new ceasefire between the two sides and submitted a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire.

On the Strait of Hormuz, the major flashpoint in the conflict, Baghaei said on Sunday that Iran and Oman have held "fruitful" talks on managing safe shipping traffic in the strait, with some progress achieved.

He added that the United States was not involved in recent talks with Oman over the management of the strait, which he described as "positive."

"These talks have no connection with the United States. They are a bilateral matter between Iran and Oman, and they are continuing," he said, noting that the waterway "remains closed."

PRESSURE MOUNTED

Trump's latest turn in handling the conflict with Iran came after a meeting on Friday with top advisers and senior members of his cabinet, The New York Times reported, citing two people briefed on the discussion.

Intensifying the war could dangerously drain the Pentagon's already diminished stockpile of Patriot antimissile interceptors and other air defense munitions in the Middle East, said the report.

Trump and his top aides are also uneasy about the prospect of a widening war in the Middle East, the alienation of key Gulf allies who are vulnerable to Iranian attacks, a global economic crunch, and growing energy and refugee crises, it added.

In late April, The New York Times reported that the Pentagon had used more than 1,200 Patriot interceptor missiles in the war, at more than 4 million U.S. dollars apiece, leaving inventories worryingly low. With the latest round of attacks, the situation has even worsened.

The U.S. public has grown increasingly wary of the war. According to a new poll published on Monday, only one in three Americans supports the war against Iran, the lowest reading since the conflict's early days.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted from Friday through Sunday, found that 69 percent of Americans -- including four in 10 Republicans -- think Trump has not "clearly explained the goals of U.S. military involvement in Iran."

A growing number of polls have also shown rising public backlash against the war. A recent poll released by The Washington Post-Ipsos found that 68 percent of Americans believe the war is "not worth fighting."

Besides the direct reasons, experts believe neither side appears interested in a full-scale war because both recognize the high cost of escalation.

The United States faces domestic economic pressures, including rising oil prices, while Iran has suffered significant military strikes that have further damaged its economy, said Mustafa Ibrahim, a Gaza-based political analyst.

An agreement remains possible if both sides can gain a better understanding of key issues, particularly sanctions relief, U.S. policies regarding the Strait of Hormuz, and other unresolved disputes, he said.
-XINHUA