What’s Happening In Syria 1 Month After Al-Assad’s Downfall And What To Expect?

On the eighth of December 2024, the 54-year al-Assad's rule over Syria abruptly ended, following an 11-day military campaign led by opposition fighters advancing from the north.

Since then, Syria's new government has scrambled to restore order, rebuild institutions, and reach out to regional and global partners. However, running a country as complex as Syria has proven to be a significant challenge.

STABILIZATION EFFORTS

Shortly after the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's government, leaders of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the primary force behind the offensive, formed an interim government with ministers who had been serving in the so-called Salvation Government in the northwestern province of Idlib, a major opposition bastion during Syria's prolonged 13-year war.

The new interim government has made efforts to reassure the public, emphasizing their commitment to preserving state institutions and preventing the chaos seen in post-regime transitions in countries like Iraq and Libya.

Domestically, they reopened major roads, lifted certain restrictions, and reestablished some basic public services to restore normalcy.

Their security measures, however, remain a contentious issue. Sweeping crackdowns on suspected remnants of the old order, along with sporadic reports of detentions or minor abuses, indicate the delicate balance between restoring order and protecting individual rights.

The new cabinet also prioritized reviving internal services such as electricity distribution, reopening key airports, and overseeing the resumption of government offices.

One month after the government change, experts in Syria believe it's too early to judge the current situation.

"It's only been a month, so it's too early to make final judgments. The administration tried first to keep the country stable, which is seen as a positive step. Forming a provisional cabinet helps ensure state continuity and aims to improve citizens' daily lives," Mohammad al-Omari, a Syrian political analyst, told Xinhua.

DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS

On foreign policy, Syria's new leadership moved swiftly to repair relations with Arab nations and other global stakeholders.

The reopening of Damascus International Airport for international flights, including its first civilian flight from Qatar in 13 years, symbolizes a significant step toward normalizing relations.

Qatari and Turkish delegations visited Damascus, while Syria's interim Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shibani traveled to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Jordan to mend ties and call for the lifting of Western sanctions.

Stressing inclusivity, economic collaboration, and a commitment to meeting the aspirations of the Syrian people, the interim government sent a message of openness for dialogue.

SECURITY CHALLENGES

Despite diplomatic efforts, security threats persist as Israeli troops repeatedly advanced into Quneitra and Daraa provinces in southern Syria, causing road closures and school disruptions.

Northern Syria continues to experience clashes between Turkish-backed factions and the U.S.-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), as Türkiye seeks to eliminate perceived threats from Kurdish-led groups.

Meanwhile, the new interim government has been working to contain the proliferation of small arms, much of it left behind by former government forces on Dec. 8. Civilians and even teenagers have reportedly acquired weapons from abandoned military sites, leading to several accidents.

To address this, the interim government has set up centers for handing over weapons across major cities in Syria as part of the efforts to stabilize the country and prevent any possible chaos that would result from the proliferation of weapons.

ECONOMIC WOES

While the markets in Damascus are bustling with goods and necessities that are costlier than ever, electricity outages plague many areas. Additionally, government institutions are not yet fully operational.

In response, the interim government announced Wednesday that two power-generation ships from Türkiye and Qatar, each capable of producing hundreds of megawatts, were on their way to boost Syria's electricity grid.

This would help curb severe power shortages and expand services by nearly 50 percent, according to official reports.

Meanwhile, Syria's Oil Ministry said that efforts are also underway to restart refineries with anticipated shipments of crude oil.

Still, battered infrastructure, inflation, and ongoing sanctions hinder a swift recovery.

ROAD AHEAD

Rebuilding social cohesion is believed to be the most critical challenge. Observers believe that the new leadership must reassure minority groups, refugee communities, and various political factions that their rights and interests will not be overlooked in the new era.

All eyes now are on the planned national dialogue conference involving minority groups, political parties, and civil society groups, though a date has yet to be set.

The authorities have promised to invite representatives from all segments of society, hoping for a balanced representation of ethnic, religious, and political parties and groups.

Official statements emphasize the need for displaced Syrians to return, though no comprehensive framework for reintegration has yet to be announced.

"The biggest challenges in the months ahead are threefold: navigating security developments like Israel's actions and the conflict between Türkiye and the SDF, pushing forward political process through the national dialogue, and improving living conditions," al-Omari said.

He added that the new authority must work hard to convince Western countries to lift the suffocating economic sanctions on Syria.

On Monday, the U.S. Treasury introduced a six-month general license that permits specific dealings with the Syrian government, such as energy-related transactions and related activities, to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid.

Syria's interim foreign ministry on Wednesday welcomed the exemptions and waivers regarding economic sanctions on Syria, attributing the development to "intensive sessions" and praising the "tremendous work of Syria's remarkable teams."

Syria's interim foreign minister on Wednesday pledged to restore the country's full territorial unity and ensure the return of refugees.

"Our happiness will remain unfinished until every inch of Syrian land is reunited, and displaced people and refugees are back in their homes," al-Shibani said in a statement marking the one-month anniversary of the government change.
-XINHUA