Nepal may be comparatively a small country in South Asia, however, the political undercurrents that quite often come to play in this former Hindu Kingdom is simply amazing. Several Western diplomats posted in Nepal have told this scribe in private that Nepal’s strategic location is what makes Nepal very important in global politics. One key factor that places Nepal in the most significant strategic geo-political location is surely it being flanked North and South by two gigantic neighbors with differing political systems. While the Southern stretch of Nepal touches India, born 1947, from three sides, then in the North is the mighty equally ancient neighbor China-the emerging world power in its own right.
Average Nepali nationalists at times voice their genuine concerns over the fact that the 1950 Treaty that governs Nepal-India bilateral ties is not only “asymmetrical” but also the provisions stipulated in the said Treaty of “Peace and Friendship” signed in July 1950 has become simply outmoded and useless with the sea changes that have taken place since signing of the Treaty and hence needs “immediate changes” to match with the changed political context in the international political arena more so in the South Asian horizon wherein both Nepal and India are placed.
The uneven and outdated Nepal-India bilateral 1950 Treaty needs timely changes that suit the dramatic changes that have taken shape in this part of the World (South Asia) of late. For instance, India-the once champion of the Non-Aligned World during the Nehru era is no more a non-aligned nation as its highly arrogant Foreign Minister S. Jay Shankar has reiterated many times that India will go to any extent if it is in the prime/security/commercial interests of India.
This does mean that India no more is a non-aligned nation and as a matter of fact, Nepal has been serving in the previous decades, more so after the ouster of Nepali monarchy in 2005-6, in an (India designed and funded “political movement” carried out by the declared paid and posted agents of the Indian regime, too appears to have lost its non-aligned image that was so distinct then.
Needless to say, this India sponsored political upheaval enjoyed the clandestine support of the agents of the Indian spy agency-the RAW whose leader was no less than the sitting foreign secretary of the Indian regime with Indira congress bend ‘Shyam Saran’ whose personal enmity with sitting Monarch, King Gyanendra catapulted the Nepali politics culminating in a political change that later became submissive and obedient to the Indian establishment. The Indian foreign Secretary Shyam Saran then put the entire strength of the mighty Indira Congress Government led then by the Italian Queen Sonia Gandhi’s proxy Dr. man Mohan Singh who deputed Shyam Saran to do all the needful in order to unseat King Gyanendra from Nepali throne.
The King afterwards, in all of his wisdom, abdicated the throne voluntarily hoping that his absence from the political scene would bring in prosperity to the people by the upcoming India selected and recruited Nepali leaders.
However, it later became just the opposite and the people who assisted the RAW agents during 2005/6 came to their senses when they felt cheated by the new India elevated leaders whose loyalty was only for serving the “Masters in Delhi” who had elevated them to Kathmandu's political corridors.
Instead of bringing in affluence and betterment in social life, the common people saw for themselves as to how Indian machinations began dictating the subservient Nepali leader(s) to act in favor of the Indian interests.
The increasing highhandedness of the Indian regime in the past decade(s) developed to an unimaginable extent and the funniest part of the story is that the Nepali currency was pegged along with the Nepali economy which made Nepal highly dependent on an already dependent India. Later after the monarchy’s dismissal, the Nepali politics, foreign policy, too was more or less pegged with Indian politics and this pegging touched a new height when the country’s Independent and Non-Aligned foreign policy too was made a perfect tail of the Indian tail.
The fun is that all these political abnormalities took place the moment King Gyanendra was toppled from the Nepali throne. The King entered into the nearby jungles and the NOIDA, Delhi jungle dwellers that were provided with RAW and BJP government’s regime shelter then were smoothly exported to Nepal by the then proxy Sonia Gandhi’s regime led by Dr. Man Mohan Singh.
Nepal’s mis-fortune began in earnest.
The Nepal Maoists then residing in India Delhi in June 6, 2002, had inked an agreement with the Shelter Provider-Delhi obviously- wherein the Maoists had promised that their target was only to damage Nepal but shall ever remain sincere to the preservation of India’s prime and security interests.
Late Girija Prasad Koirala who was almost equivalent to Sikkim’s Lendhup Dorje who allowed Madame Indira Gandhi to annex the then Independent and sovereign Sikkim in the mid-seventies. At the moment we have several Lendhup Dorjes who would prefer the Sikkimisation of Nepal as they are thickly paid and posted by the RAW apparatus in Kathmandu. It is said that every third man walking in the Kathmandu street is necessarily a man close to India’s RAW.
Sources say that Nepal’s vibrant media are in the payroll of the RAW machinery and the approaching Dashain festivals shall bring in hefty-envelopes from the Indian embassy in Kathmandu together with ‘Alcohol bottles’ suiting to the agents’ rank and popularity.
It is this set of so-called Nepal’s pulsating media that calls the shots in Kathmandu and in the process has been pushing the country towards Sikkimisation. I, for one, predict that Nepal will cease to exist by early 2030.
Enters China-the Northern neighbor:
China-the Northern neighbor went on some sort of “depression” beginning the next day of the ouster of Nepali Monarchy for a few years.
To recall, for the expulsion of King Gyanendra from the Nepali throne, China too is to some extent ‘answerable’. The primary slip-up China did was being lured by the then Indian Foreign Secretary, Shyam Saran, who as the stooge of the Italian Queen Sonia Gandhi was hell bent on deposing King Gyanendra.
The second blunder China visibly did was when its new envoy presented diplomatic credentials to the Indian stooge, late Girija Prasad Koirala, when the monarchy was still legal in Nepal. This move of China was taken as China’s chameleon behavior that it was for sure.
To cut the story short:
After the unlawful overthrow of King Gyanendra, China lost an undeviating friend in Nepal that was well accepted and honored by Chairman Mao, Chou-En- Lai and Marshal Chen Yi. So China is repenting for what it sowed during the political change of 2005-6. It was indeed a grand lapse on the part of China in Nepal.
The day King Gyanendra entered into the nearby Jungles in Nagarjun, anti-China elements celebrated the ouster. The Dalai Lama office in Kathmandu openly fêted some events that were almost nil at the time when the Monarchy was alive and kicking.
Nepal’s long adhered principles of Panchsheel and “One China Policy” became a lost case to the extent the ministers in the Nepali Congress government openly entered into the Dalai office in Kathmandu and the Chinese embassy was forced to tolerate the collapse of Nepal’s commitments on China.
“One China Policy” became a distant dream in practice and the Chinese embassy diplomats have had to witness the bizarre events day in and day out.
Several Ambassadors from China who were posted in Nepal after Monarchy’s fall here could not ventilate their inner pains and time permitting anti-China elements reportedly were encouraged by India which had provided official shelter to the Dalai Lama and the Dalai was used by India as a “card” to tease and discipline China since the very days of Pandit Nehru.
Years and decades followed afterwards but the Chinese pain in Nepal was never ending.
However, when the US Millennium Compact, MCC, project entered into Nepali politics, naturally China came out from the deep snooze. China got a serious jolt when it learnt that The US and India were together in the US designed security mechanism and that the entire QUAD structure intended to encircle or say contain China across the world more so in the South Asian region. India willingly became a part of the USs strategic partner in the Quad only to settle its score with China more so of the humiliating defeat of the 1962 full scale war.
As the time went by, China slowly but on a regular basis began feeling the heat of the US-India combined exercises aimed against China directly or even indirectly.
China asserts its role in Nepal:
Braving all the odds from Nepali soil from all possible quarters, finally the Chinese foreign ministry appears to have decided to send a somewhat bold and practical, unwavering and a straight forward Ambassador to Kathmandu to take up the diplomatic assignment. The new Chinese envoy Chen Song landed in Kathmandu on , I recall, January 08, early this year.
Ambassador Chen exploded a bombshell right upon his arrival wherein he said at the airport, (in his own words) “China will, as always, firmly support Nepal in safeguarding state sovereignty and national dignity, exploring a development path suited to its national conditions, and pursuing independent domestic and foreign policies.”
Such statements from China used to emanate at the time of Chairman Mao, Chou-En Lai, Deng Xiao Ping and Marshal Chen Yi.
The envoy talked of safeguarding Nepal’s sovereignty at such a time when Nepal was experiencing great threat from India from all quarters as the entire politics of Nepal politics ran under the command and the dictates of India.
If there is a threat to Nepal then it is certainly from India. Indian highhandedness ran supreme and still continues in a disgusting manner.
Envoy Chen Song speaks when China feels the heat:
When enough had been enough and the Indian excesses touched a new high, China felt the need to alert or alarm the Nepali state through a speech at a Kathmandu’s program wherein he bluntly said that, “Nepal is unfortunate to have India as its immediate neighbor”. Hardly had the speech made a full round in Kathmandu’s political circuit, the cyber-soldiers of India pounced upon China and some even demanded that Ambassador Chen Song be declared persona non grata ( PNG). The Ambassador remained undeterred and braved the onslaughts from the expected quarters.
Though China is not a reliable partner of Nepal yet it was only Ambassador Chen Song who from Kathmandu’s soil made a sharp comment on India that India deserved and which was long overdue.
China’s special emissary meets King Gyanendra:
Politics began moving swiftly, as we have the real information from usually highly placed sources, the day Delhi indoctrinated Prime Minister Prachanda embarked on a excursion to the USA and was also to make the same outing for USAs bête noir-China.
China for understandable reasons did not like the idea that Nepal Prime Minister is to visit China after his meaningless trip to the USA. Hopefully, the US too may not have liked the idea of the Nepal PM visiting China altogether and that after the USA.
The unexpected Russia–North Korea link:
As it became clear later that in his recent official trip to the Russian Federation, Kim Jong-Un met with the Russian President Vladimir Putin. It was at this Putin-Un meet in Vostochny Cosmodrome in Russia’s Far East, that the two leaders from Russia and North Korea at one point accidentally talked about the Nepal situation.
Both Russia and North Korea were briefed in advance about the US’s increasing influence in Nepal thereby creating a security threat to China and its underbelly Tibet that adjoins Nepal’s northern frontier.
The DPRK leader Kim who is a declared rival of the US and Russia as a matter of fact is not in speaking terms with the USA because of Russia-Ukraine War discussed the Nepal situation and the two leaders reportedly, arrived at a conclusion that China’s interests in Nepal too must be saved for several political reasons.
The International Criminal Court ( ICC) has issued an arrest warrant on Russian President Putin, to recall. It was this presumed talk between Putin-Kim in Russian territory that approached Kathmandu at a time when Ambassador Chen Song had openly criticized India and braved scathing criticisms thereafter.
Sources say that the Kathmandu based Chinese Ambassador then sought the crucial help of the North Korean Ambassador in Lalitpur and urged him to convince the veteran Communist leaders of Bhaktapur to work in favor of the comeback of the unceremoniously deposed Nepali monarchy.
Narayan Man Bijukchhe is an old hand communist leader who is yet not corrupt as other communists from various political paraphernalia then presumably convinced his loyal voters in his constituency and thus a few days later King Gyanendra was felicitated in Bhaktapur in a spectacular manner. Narayan Man is close to both the Chinese Ambassador and the DPRK envoy residing in Kathmandu.
Had it not been the Communist leader Bijukchhe, the grand felicitation of the King would not have been possible. Lalitpur and then Kathmandu metropolis too are planning to felicitate the deposed King sooner than later.
Hardly had the Bhaktapur felicitation of the King subsided, yet another Communist ideologue, Mohan Baidya ‘Kiran” who belongs to the former Nepal Maoists camp but at the moment differs with his former colleagues on count of the open Indian maneuverings in Nepali affairs began speaking in favor of the restoration of the monarchy if Nepal’s sovereignty were to be safeguarded. Mohan Baidya reportedly is close to China.
As the luck would have it, both the communist veterans, Narayan Man Bijukche and Mohan Baidya ‘Kiran” began voicing their similar concerns wherein both experienced Communists stated that “in order to safe Nepal’s integrity and sovereignty”, unity with the deposed King too could be brought into existence. They jointly hinted that the deposed King too could be taken into confidence in order to avert the threat to sovereignty. Both recognized King Gyanendra as a formidable force which could be brought into use to safeguard threat to Nepali sovereignty.
Highly placed sources say that the next day of Nepal Prime Minister’s departure to the US, that is on September 17, 2023, around Eleven in the night, one unnamed special official emissary of Chinese President Xi Jinping entered into King Gyanendra’s Palace in Maharajgunj and conveyed Xi’s message to the deposed King. Sources say the meet in between the two lasted for about an hour and a half. However, what transpired in between the two remains yet undisclosed.
The special emissary while meeting the King said in no uncertain terms that Nepal Kings have ever remained as a permanent friend of China. Highly placed sources also say that the day President Xi Jinping had landed in Nepal in the year perhaps, 2019, President Xi’s special envoy had also met the King. However, with the Prime Ministerial intervention, this special meeting was kept a guarded secret.
PM Oli did not allow the special emissary to make his meeting with King Gyanendra official. So the fresh meeting could be the second in succession. In fact, when the monarchy was kicking and alive in Nepal, the Monarchy had kept both the immediate neighbors at a comfortable distance. It was more or less a practice of equi-distant theory. However, with King dismissed, China’s pain quadrupled and finally China appears to have realized that sans a permanent friend in Nepal, China will be a lost cause in Nepal.
But yet I would say that China is not a reliable partner of Nepal provided China corrects its blunder committed in May, 2015-the year Nepal was hit by a 7. 9 mega earthquakes on the Richter scale. It was this year when India and China inked a trade deal through Nepali landmass ( Lipulekh) without informing or asking for advance consent of Nepal. It was an unauthorized act which had no consent of the landowner-Nepal. Unless China corrects the said blunder, Nepali population shall continue to take China as an unreliable partner.
Having said all these, will the revival of the deposed king shall do justice with its bilateral ties with India or for that matter the US? Let’s wait and see.