Trapped In Thucydidean Worldview, U.S. Becomes Primary Culprit Of Global Risk

"A rogue America is among the biggest threats of 2025," Foreign Policy magazine warned at the start of this year, days ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration as U.S. president.

Since returning to the White House, Trump has unleashed a wave of "America First" policies: weaponizing tariffs, coveting foreign territories and resorting to coercive diplomacy. All these unilateralist and protectionist ruses have disrupted global economic cooperation, undermined regional stability and threatened the international order, thus posing significant risks to the world.

TARIFF WALL

A defining policy of the Trump administration is building a "tariff wall" around the United States, which, according to political risk consultancy Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer, "represents an effort to reshape the global economic order and America's place in it."

On top of a 25 percent tariff on imported steel and aluminum, Washington has announced a 25 percent levy on all imported cars, sparking a strong global backlash.

Analysts suggest that the United States itself may bear the heaviest burden of its own tariff policies. Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius has lowered the U.S. economic growth forecast for this year from 2.4 percent to 1.7 percent, highlighting the impact of tariffs.

In addition, growing trade fragmentation threatens to weigh on global economic prospects, according to a recent report released by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Analysts warned that U.S. tariff hikes could severely undermine the multilateral trade system, disrupt global supply chains and escalate tensions in international economic relations, further fragmenting the global economic landscape.

"CONQUEST IS BACK"

The Trump administration has also taken an aggressive stance on territorial matters. He pledged to acquire Greenland "one way or the other," called for Canada to be the 51st U.S. state, threatened to reclaim the Panama Canal and signed an executive order to rename the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America.

"Conquest is back," observed Foreign Affairs in March.

Little wonder such rhetoric has drawn swift condemnation. Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen described Trump's rhetoric as a "veiled threat" and "deeply inappropriate," warning that the United States was escalating tensions. Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino vowed that the Panama Canal "is and will always be Panamanian." Boycott of American goods and protests against the U.S. government have gained momentum in Canada, Greenland and several European countries.

Analysts warn that whether or not Trump's expansionist rhetoric translates into concrete action, it already poses a significant threat to national sovereignty and the international order. In his view, territorial conquest and division appear normalized, while international law and multilateralism face the risk of collapse.

COERCIVE PLOY

In the worldview of great power competition, sanctions, threats, extortion, military intervention and even colonial-style resource exploitation are all seen as legitimate tools for securing America's superiority, noted news site Eurasia Review.

Coercion has long been a cornerstone of U.S. diplomacy, particularly in conflicts involving Ukraine and the Middle East. Washington's approach to the Ukraine crisis has come at the expense of Ukraine's own interests, making it difficult for Kiev to accept. Meanwhile, Washington and Moscow remain deeply divided over the conditions for a ceasefire. It seems unrealistic for the United States to resolve the crisis swiftly through pressure and inducements.

In the Middle East, American coercive diplomacy has done more to fuel conflicts than to contain them. Israel has resumed strikes on Gaza, U.S. forces have escalated attacks on Yemen's Houthi fighters, and ceasefire talks remain at an impasse.

"For Trump, foreign policy isn't about carefully negotiated peace deals. It's about performance, leverage and crafting a narrative that sells," said Sina Toossi, a fellow at the U.S. think tank Center for International Policy.

Aaron David Miller, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, also noted that Trump is looking for "quick wins" instead of resolving conflicts.

GLOBAL ORDER SABOTEUR

The imperialism of today's United States "bears the ugly hallmarks of earlier iterations," including the pursuit of power and wealth, military dominance, economic coercion, territorial control and an "utterly hypocritical morality," wrote The Guardian commentator Simon Tisdall.

Given its tariff policies, expansionist ambitions or coercive diplomacy, the United States is plainly stuck in a unilateralist and domineering mindset that "might makes right," which, according to James M. Lindsay, a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, is a Thucydidean worldview -- one in which "the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must."

Public sentiment abroad appears to be shifting in response. Last month, a YouGov poll revealed a sharp decline in positive views of the United States across several European countries, including Britain, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy and Spain, with some drops exceeding 20 percentage points. Meanwhile, a recent survey by Canadian polling firm Leger found that only about one-third of Canadians now hold a positive view of their southern neighbor.

As the moral and political foundations of the United States continue to erode, more nations are speaking up for upholding multilateralism and promoting global peace and stability. "Let nobody be surprised when the world once again looks for balance, and America ends up alone," Bloomberg warned.
-XINHUA